Changes in the Total Solar Irradiance and climatic effects

The correlation between the averaged reconstructed March temperature record for Kyoto, Japan, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) over 660 years from 1230 to 1890 gives evidence with 98% probability that Little Ice Age four cold periods is forced by variations of TSI. If restricted period 1650–1890, two in 17th 19th century which independent records are available, solar forcing increases 99.99%. As irradiance have a global effect there has be climatic impact. However, how much were lower during these minima what amplitude TSI was varying not accurately known. quantities, TSI, linked energy equilibrium equation Earth system. derivation this respect variation terms: A direct term, can derived analytically quantified Stefan-Boltzmann law, second describing indirect influences on surface temperature. small should force large variation, then it term strongly amplifies forcing. current knowledge summarized three statements: During 13th, 15/16th, 17th, centuries terrestrial climate colder 0.5–1.5 °C; Indirect Top-down Bottom-up mechanisms do amplify amount, i.e. same magnitude (or smaller) as forcing; radiative output Sun cannot more than 2 Wm ?2 below measured present-day value cycle minimum. These statements contradict each other concluded at least one correct. Which wrong statement presently known conclusively. It argued third speculated centennial time scales might vary its radiance significantly observed so far last 40 space measurements. To produce Maunder minimum type excursions, decrease order 10 advocated.